12/22 Ho Ho Ho...ly !@#$!@#$

Written on December 22, 2010

Is it just me, or did Santa trim his beard a bit? If you think Christmas came a little early this year, maybe you are right. We heard some rumors that Santa was actually borrowing money and filling up his sleigh when he showed up in the neighborhood early this year. Apparently he left some IOU’s in the stockings hung by the chimney with care…enough to widen the US deficit ~$17,500 for every US household..

We did not hear any stories of Santa giving out many presents when his sleigh came around, except for the banks where he unloaded his early collections. Those guys seem very happy this year.

When he visits your house, I hope you have a wonderful experience and get lots of presents. I am not sure he will make it to Doha this year, as they are not willing to put anything into his sleigh over here.

May your:

Leverage be big in the right investments;

Ride be smooth on the back of low interest rates;

Assets surf comfortably along the wave of massive governmental spending;

Investments soar far more than the inflation you experience;

Liabilities shrivel for your genius in borrowing in countries with soaring deficits, profligate politicians and declining currencies

Merry Christmas to all and to all a great 2011!

Leon

12/20 Wise Men, Stars, Peace on Earth, Good Will Toward (some) Men...

Written on December 20, 2010

Merry Christmas, Happy Hannukah, Best wishes on Chinese New Year and the Year of the Rabbit-

Since my roots are British, and in this season we celebrate the findings of some wise men following a star in the East not too far from where I now live, I could not help myself…

Tuesday will mark the winter solstice, the shortest day of 2010 and a coincidentally there will be a lunar eclipse happening that day. The last time these happened on the same day was 456 years ago. I started looking at that year as many market timers put a lot of stock in these lunar cycles. My interest was more historic.

Turns out that 1555 was a good year if “Peace on Earth” was the goal.

The Peace of Augsburg was signed ending the struggle between the Catholics and Protestants in the Holy Roman Empire and the Ottomans (Turkey), under Suleiman the Magnificent, signed the Peace of Amasya پیمان آماسیه (for those that read Farsi) with the then Persian Shah (Iran).

Good will toward men…not so much. Peace cost a few everything including their freedom and their very lives. Queen Mary (not the ship), etched in history her nickname as “Bloody Mary” by appeasing the Pope and keeping the British town squares warmly lit with the bodies of vocal Protestant holy men.

1555 was pretty rough on some potential Christmas carolers.

John Rogers became the first Protestant martyr to be burned at the stake.

Laurence Saunders followed his lead and was led out to the town square in his bare feet then burned at the stake.

Rowland Taylor burned at the stake.

John Hooper burned at the stake.

Hugh Latimer burned at the stake.

Nicholas Radley burned at the stake.

And, finally, Thomas Cranmer, the Archbishop of Canterbury (the bloke that had annulled the marriage of Henry VIII to Catherine of Aragon so HH could move along to another wife), was imprisoned and then in March 1556 was burned at the stake for this “heresy”.

The John Rogers execution is something out of a Mel Gibson movie…

Mr. Woodroofe, one of the sheriffs, first came to Mr. Rogers, and asked him if he would revoke his abominable doctrine, and the evil opinion of the Sacrament of the altar. Mr. Rogers answered, "That which I have preached I will seal with my blood." Then Mr. Woodroofe said, "Thou art an heretic." "That shall be known," quoth Mr. Rogers, "at the Day of Judgment." "Well," said Mr. Woodroofe, "I will never pray for thee." "But I will pray for you," said Mr. Rogers; and so was brought the same day, the fourth of February, by the sheriffs, towards Smithfield, saying the Psalm Miserere by the way, all the people wonderfully rejoicing at his constancy; with great praises and thanks to God for the same. And there in the presence of Mr. Rochester, comptroller of the queen's household, Sir Richard Southwell, both the sheriffs, and a great number of people, he was burnt to ashes, washing his hands in the flame as he was burning. A little before his burning, his pardon was brought, if he would have recanted; but he utterly refused it. He was the first martyr of all the blessed company that suffered in Queen Mary's time that gave the first adventure upon the fire. His wife and children, being eleven in number, ten able to go, and one sucking at her breast, met him by the way, as he went towards Smithfield. This sorrowful sight of his own flesh and blood could nothing move him, but that he constantly and cheerfully took his death with wonderful patience, in the defence and quarrel of the Gospel." FREEEDOM! (added for effect)

Μὴ νομίσητε ὅτι ἦλθον βαλεῖν εἰρήνην ἐπὶ τὴν γῆν· οὐκ ἦλθον βαλεῖν εἰρήνην ἀλλὰ μάχαιραν. (Think not that I am come to send peace on earth, I came not to send peace… – Jesus of Nazareth)

My definition of a free society is a society where it is safe to be unpopular. - Adlai Stevenson

Peace if possible, truth at all costs…Martin Luther.

It did not go so well for England. Three years later they lost Calais to the French, thus surrendering the last English possession on the Continent.

Freedom or peace, I guess I would choose freedom. Some never get either. Don’t forget to count your blessings during this season and while you are setting your sights and your goals for New Year.

All the best,

Leon

12/14 4th Quarter so Far

Written on December 14, 2010

Huh?

Death spirals in US bond markets have not often lead to sustainable rallies in US stocks.

It was an “interesting” quarter…swapping bonds into stocks would have benefitted US investors handsomely.Selling bonds was obvious and saved 4-9% but I missed the buy stocks side of this allocation as I still have a blind spot to US equities.

10-30 yr T-bonds are down 4-9%, stocks shot up 8% this quarter so far and I think they now look very vulnerable, Gold is up 5%. Dollar index was volatile but is little changed. QE2 took it down, further Euro crisis took it up.

Clearly, I don’t get it.

Was the stock market illiquid enough that the sell-off in Treasury bonds forced an 8% run as individual investors ran into stocks?

Since they will not be raising taxes, deficits will remain high and government will be forced to shrink spending dramatically?

The dollar will fall eventually out of fiscal concerns (if/when Europe calms down) and exporters will benefit from a lower dollar?

Seems a little wishful to me. We will see how this hand plays out as the stimulus package winds down. Not a lot of economic bang for the $1.6 Trillion spent to prop up banks. I still see 9.8% unemployment and pretty slow growth.

Careful,

Leon

12/12 What, Me Worry?

Written on December 12, 2010

Greetings-

All kidding aside, we have reached another point of peril this week. Many individual investors are very bullish-positive (53.0%) and hardly any are bearish-negative (22.6%)

And they have been selling options because very few believe they need insurance for their portfolios of stocks.

It is likely no different this time than the last and there is a sharp correction coming. Head to the sidelines; cash out your winnings and wait for a dip.

Praemonitus, praemunitus…

Burnt children dread the fire…

A word to the wise is sufficient…

As a dog returns to his vomit so a fool repeats his folly.

(my personal favorite from King Solomon’s Proverbs)

Sell high, to preserve the right to buy low,

Leon

12/11 Good Reads- Fight Fire with Fire

Written on December 11, 2010

Good Reads,

Constantly have to remind myself, when thinking about currency values, there are always two sides to the story (value)…

Leon

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Fighting Fire With Fire: The Euro Zone’s Hesitant Response to

2010-12-09 22:00:54.874 GMT

Fighting Fire With Fire: The Euro Zone’s Hesitant Response to the Sovereign-debt Crisis

Unless it is a lot bolder, the euro zone risks being overwhelmed by the markets

Dec. 11 (The Economist) -- IT WAS the Great Fire of 1666 that prompted the establishment of London’s modern fire brigade, organised at first by private insurers, but later coming under public management. In Paris, on the initiative of Louis XV, the pompiers have been fighting fires since 1733. Few Europeans today could imagine a city without a public firefighting service, or a home without fire insurance. But when the architects of the single currency built the euro, they thought that sharing the risk of disaster might merely encourage recklessness and even arson. Better than this moral hazard was to make each country master of its own fate. Why should those living in brick houses save the feckless in their wooden huts?

Now that a great financial blaze has taken hold, the euro zone is facing its 1666 moment. Unless tamed, the conflagration might not spare anybody. The interconnectedness of Europe’s banks .

), encouraged by the single currency, is acting as a combustible channel for flames to travel from building to building. Greece and Ireland have already gone up in smoke. The flames are licking at Portugal and Spain; Italy and Belgium worry that they might be consumed too. Despite the cries for help, Germany, the great lord in town, does not want to spend more treasure saving its neighbours. Yet even German bond yields are starting to rise.

“We have to stop the bush fires turning into a Europe-wide forest fire,” declares Olli Rehn, the European Union’s economics commissioner. Prevarication makes matters worse. The euro zone’s actions have been hesitant and haphazard. It belatedly improvised to contain the blaze in Greece this spring and then put together €750 billion ($980

billion) in bail-out funds, now being drawn on for Ireland. The EU urges all to protect themselves by cutting budget deficits.

It plans closer scrutiny of national budgets and economic policies, and tougher sanctions for miscreants. Yet a better fire code in future may not quench today’s fire.

Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, has taken to denouncing fleeing investors, threatening to make them pay. Her menaces only make them run faster. Their panic is caused not just by fear that some countries cannot repay their debts, but also by scepticism about politicians’ ability to do very much to help. One can almost hear London’s Lord Mayor in 1666, as recorded in Pepys’s diary: “Lord, what can I do? I am spent. People will not obey me. I have been pulling down the houses. But the fire overtakes us faster than we can do it.”

Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, certainly looked spent when, after chairing a meeting of euro-zone finance ministers on December 6th, he said he had “no new decisions” to announce. Only hours earlier, Mr Juncker had surprised his colleagues in an article co-written with Italy’s finance minister, Giulio Tremonti, urging euro members to issue collective Eurobonds. Such “E-bonds” might eventually account for up to 40% of the euro zone’s GDP.

The idea is a variation on a proposal made in May by the Bruegel think-tank in Brussels, which suggested a limit of 60% of GDP for pooled “blue” bonds. These would clearly reduce interest rates for weaker countries, but even stronger ones might benefit from the existence of a larger and more liquid market. “Red” bonds over the debt threshold would become especially risky, encouraging discipline without causing outright collapse.

Mr Juncker and Mr Tremonti suggested that their plan would “send a clear message to global markets and European citizens of our political commitment to economic and monetary union and the irreversibility of the euro.” Instead the Germans, Dutch and Austrians sent the authors a clear message to shut up. The most creditworthy countries in Europe do not want to muddle their debt up with that of the biggest credit risks. Another idea that went unheeded was the call, made quietly by the IMF and more loudly by Belgium, for the bail-out fund to be enlarged. “We can’t have a new debate every week,”

complained Germany’s Wolfgang Schäuble. Better to complete the measures in hand and see if they work. But in the view of the IMF’s boss, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, such a piecemeal approach is dangerous. A “comprehensive solution” is needed.

Trichet le pompier

For the moment the task of fighting the flames is falling largely to Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. The Frenchman has been dousing the financial system with liquidity and buying up the government bonds of troubled countries. To critics, including some members of his own board, this risks stoking inflation and turning the ECB into a “bad bank” in which rotten assets just pile up. To supporters, though, Mr Trichet is the hero of the hour for resorting to unorthodox policies even as others dither. He has been chosen as the winner of the Charlemagne prize, conferred by the German city of Aachen for outstanding contributions to European unity. It was bestowed on the euro in 2002. Now Mr Trichet is being honoured for trying to save it.

Using the ECB to back sovereign debt might be seen in some quarters as another stealthy step towards fiscal union. One more foundation stone quietly being laid is the first issuance next year of common bonds, for Ireland, by the European Financial Stability Facility. One way or another, say enthusiasts, a Eurobond is just a matter of time. That might provide an insurance policy for the future. But what of the current inferno?

Some say that in the end a radical step may be needed: to restructure the debt of banks and governments alike. This would be like the garrison in the Tower of London bringing out gunpowder in 1666 to blow up nearby houses so as to create a true firebreak. That action, Pepys notes, “at first did frighten people more than anything, but it stopped the fire where it was done”.

-0- Dec/09/2010 22:00 GMT

12/1 When Pig's Fly

Written on December 1, 2010

Guten morgen-

I liked the following in JP Morgan’ s bit today:

“A full-scale German underwriting or the EMU problem. How likely is that? Wenn schweine fliegen können.”

When pigs fly indeed…

Note I am getting Gartman again.

Leon

10/22 Markets

Written on October 22, 2010

Greetings-

Been busy and gone a bit, but had to write…

This could prove to be a very dangerous time. The market ran up 17% since late AUG.

The Individual investor swung from very bearish in late AUG to wildly bullish in early 11-NOV.

Volatility in stock options is pricing in that nothing bad will happen…

Bullish minus Bearish Sentiment…very bullish of late.

VIX index…nobody is buying insurance because everything is fine?

Market stalled at exactly the the wrong levels… if it is healthy.

The SP500 failed where it topped last April around 1220 and looked like it ran out the shorts and then failed in the first week of NOV just above 1225.

SP500 topped in late 2007 at 1565 just above its 2000 highs at 1550ish. Rough math shows a close of 1265 in 2007 down to a close of 676 last APRIL up to 1223 was nearly a perfect 61.8% retracement…this could mark the end of a bear market rally.

Lastly, the market is now 82% higher than in APR of 2009.

Does that reflect your sense of reality?

Is business/economy 82% better?

Can interest rates get any lower?

Can the FED or TSY do any more?

Can risk premiums get any lower?

Can investors get much more bullish?

Every conceivable stimulus has been poured on the economy and the market. It may quickly become all about paying off debt and shrinking budgets and spending.

Very careful here. The economy, the government and the public may all have run out of gas. The market may smell this fast.

Leon

10/31 JPMorgan Cembalist and a Whole Lot of Bullishness in the Little Guy. Greed is Good...Until it Isn't.

Written on October 31, 2010

Happy Halloween

Buying high to get higher is a fool’s game. The masses are generally asses or about to be proved so.

The crowed has thrown caution to the wind and is bullish going into the election and QEII.

The AAII sentiment of Bullish sentiment was at 51.2% TH.

The AAII Bearish sentiment was at 21.6%.

That means that the little guy is back invested in stocks and the crowd is again hopeful.

More hopeful in fact that it has been since January of 2007. That did not work out so well.

The lower graph should read percent bullish minus percent bearish. I apologize for the error.

Blessings,

Leon

10/25 Gold to Silver Ratio

Written on October 25, 2010

One more thing to clear my head.

From mid August the Gold Silver ratio dropped 17% from 68ish to 56ish last week. 56-58 were the interim highs in 2006- 2007 and looks like the ratio has found a resting place.

As I don’t usually advise on metals (but I did), let me add my “get out” to suffix my “get in”.

You caught a nice move over the last 8 weeks.

Marry your wife not your position.

Let me be clearer, if you sold any gold and swapped it into silver, I think the 17% outperformance in the last 7-8 weeks is enough.

CLEARER STILL, YOU MADE ENOUGH. BOOK IT.

Pigs ‘n hogs ‘n all…

Leon

10/25 Perspective

Written on October 25, 2010

Marhaba!

Funny or not so funny joke I heard...

What do you call a person that speaks three languages? "Tri-lingual," I answered. What do you call someone that speaks two languages? "Bi-lingual," I answered. What do you call someone who speaks one language? I hesitated and they blurted out, "an American"

I thought 'ha ha ha...real funny you little "foreigner"'...oh wait that's me...I am the foreigner.

Ah perspective...a little more each day.

Have a great one,

Leon

10/19 JP Morgan-Note the bit About Emerging Markets and Unspent PE Funds in Middle East, DTZ on Qatar, New Indicator

Written on October 19, 2010

Marhaba-

My buddy (pilot) told me that FedEx asked all its pilots to cancel their vacations for NOV and DEC (not done in two years) and it is rumored they may start hiring in January. I like anecdotal indicators, let’s see how this one works going forward.

I used to use the boat business, but as yet I have not heard any uptick in pleasure craft sales. Could be that the hammering in the dollar just ignited big shipping due to export growth. Let’s see how it works. The attached JP Morgan report shows value in growth stocks vs the market overall and also demonstrates intrinsic (less gov’t debt) health/value in the emerging market.

Government Gross Debt as % GDP for Advanced G-20 stands at 97% and is expected to be at 109% in 2011 vs only 78% in 2007. Levered, fat and broke.

Government Gross Debt as % GDP for Emerging G-20 stands at 37% and is expected to be at 36% in 2011 vs only 36% in 2007. Not, levered, hungry and growing.

Hmmmm…wonder who outperforms? Also compelling reasons as my mentor and genius friend told me two years ago. OWN GOLD THEY ARE WRECKING THE DOLLAR. Silver has outperformed and should continue to do so as the markets continue vertically.

The US is clearly picking the banana republic way out circa 1970-1990. If the US can convince the Arab world to de-link their currencies then they will have succeeded in hosing the Arabs on US debt as they have the Japanese. To accomplish a full-scale de-valuation of the dollar they will add the Arab world to the Japanese and keep jawboning the Chinese so they can pay back the dollars owed in much, much cheaper dollars. A company producing goods and shipping abroad and being paid in other currency for the bulk of its sales, that pays dividends, has and will be priced up like a commodity as the dollar falls. So, growth exporting companies in the US will hedge off a part of a sharply lower dollar. But it won’t be mistaken for a solid economy or job growth. If you are paid in dollars and have assets in dollars, this should concern you.

Praemonitus, praemunitus. Forewarned is forearmed.

All the best,

Leon

10/19 Black Monday +23 Years...

Written on October 19, 2010

19-OCT-1987

Few days bring back memories like today. I was 26 years old, a new trader and I knew everything. 16-OCT I had gotten out of stocks and directed everyone I knew out of the market on 16-OCT as I smelled a rat.

Fortunately my primary responsibility at that time was trading bonds and I had recently studied the 1929-1932 stock market. I bought my limit of Treasuries and they went up points. I went to my bank withdrew my savings and stuck it under my stairs...true story. Stocks were able to be bought some at 35-60% less within weeks. That taints a guy. It did me.

This is a poem that Art Cashin wrote about the day the DJIA lost 22% in one day.

Enjoy,

Leon

The Insurer

Once upon a Monday dreary

Traders waited worn and weary

As they gazed upon newstickers

warning of the day in store

Foreign markets were imploding

sending senses of foreboding

With positions overloading

sellers would be bringing more

To dump upon a bloody floor

October now had past its middle

as investors faced this riddle

With their Quotrons they would fiddle

looking for The Bull of yore

Greenback's value falling quickly

trade deficit behaving sickly

And with Iran, relations prickly

raised the specter of a war

Ahead a day that promised gore

So on the open there came selling

much faster than the tape was telling

While in Chicago they were yelling

"Dynamic hedging" is no more!

Specialists were inundated

as futures prices unrelated

Kept the selling unabated

stocks once eight now sell at four

Futures dipped below the cash now

and insurers made a dash now

Trying not to be the last now

rushing for the exit door

Then news reporters often shrewder

began misquoting Chairman Ruder

A trading halt?...a new intruder

caused yet more panic on the floor

Bethesda had a guest named Nancy

ban operation somewhat chancy

Helped to make the markets antsy

adding to our selling lore

Throughout the day as prices melted

brokers, dealers all got pelted

And bank accounts not safety-belted

were blown away forever more

The bell, it rang to end the sorrow

while traders ran to banks to borrow

To have an ante for tomorrow

not knowing what it held in store

Twenty three years…now since that day *

yet there was a scare last May

Reminding in a flashy way

of when fear and panic swept the floor

The Dow stands full six times higher *

than when it closed that day so dire

Despite two wars and terror fire

the Bull arose to run some more

This anniversary, headlines all *

dwell upon that fateful fall

And ask us veterans to recall

a time that left us scared & sore

New chills we get from déjà vu *

as currencies now run askew

And trading partners threaten too

as in that sad October yore.

But keep your faith that it's a new day *

though there are hints that skies may turn gray

We’ll hope such clouds won't bring a blue day

let's hope the Bull returns once more!!

Art Cashin UBS, 1987

10/14 Beckner: QE2 and Bernanke Friday Speech Expectations

Written on October 14, 2010

For you, my friends.

All the best,

Leon

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ Federal Reserve State of Play - By Steve Beckner - 13 Oct'10> 2010-10-13 15:52:36.866 GMT Wall Street expectations of renewed quantitative easing at the Nov. 2-3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting are now so strong that Fed watchers call it a foregone conclusion the FOMC dare not disappoint. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has a chance to confirm or dispel those expectations in a Friday speech at a Boston Fed conference. So far, while signals have been sent, they have been imprecise. And what has actually been said seemingly leaves the question slightly open. Bernanke, New York Fed President William Dudley and other officials have said "QE2" would be "effective" in lowering long-term interest rates and helping the economy. But they have not said the FOMC should definitely proceed Nov. 3. Dudley, for instance, has called Q.E. "likely" but said he wouldn't "prejudge" the Nov. 3 outcome. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren told MNI he'll back more monetary stimulus if the economy doesn't improve but said he has "an open mind" about Nov. 3. Others, including current FOMC voters James Bullard and Sandra Pianalto of the St. Louis and Cleveland Feds, have shown some ambivalence about QE2, at least as to timing. Some adamantly oppose it. After its Sept. 21 meeting, the FOMC said it was "prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate." The meeting's minutes add little to understanding. "(S)ome members saw merit in accumulating further information before reaching a decision about providing additional monetary stimulus," they disclose. "In addition, members wanted to consider further the most effective framework for calibrating and communicating any additional steps to provide such stimulus. Several members noted that unless the pace of economic recovery strengthened or underlying inflation moved back toward a level consistent with the Committee's mandate, they would consider it appropriate to take action soon." In her first speech as vice chairman Monday, former San Francsico Fed President Janet Yellen cautiously avoided taking a position on QE2. But her comments about the Fed's ability and need to "lean against the wind" of asset price bubbles should they arise can be read -- and were read by many -- as facilitating more monetary accomodation now. Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig was more vociferous than ever against QE2 Tuesday. He told the National Association for Business Economics pumping more money into the economy by buying bonds to depress long-term interest rates would have more costs than benefits. He questioned whether more Q.E. would cut already low rates much. And, even if it did, he said it would be unlikely to have much economic impact. He said there is already plenty of money in the economy, but firms are reluctant to hire and invest because of uncertainty over tax and regulatory policy. And he warned further money injections could lead to new asset price bubbles, resource "misallocations," "more imbalances," "more volatility," an "unanchoring" of inflation expectations leading to excessive inflation and a disruptive dollar drop. Notwithstanding such concerns, it does seem increasingly likely -- though not totally certain -- that the FOMC will act to "provide additional accommodation" Nov. 3 unless Bernanke decides soon to change market expectations. But the FOMC faces a contentious debate, a difficult task of deciding exactly how to implement QE2 and potentially negative repercussions both short-term and long-term, both domestically and internationally. -0- Oct/13/2010 15:52 GMT

10/13 Tidbits from Afar...

October 13, 2010

Greetings!

It is official, in Qatar today it tops out at 95⁰F and it will (hopefully) not reach 100⁰F again until next May, I feel a little jig coming on.

Warmly,

Leon

PS If you find yourself stuck, getting nowhere financially while worrying and working hard to do so. You might consider putting your money and talent outside offshore for a bit. Take a job abroad, allocate some investment capital or expand your business offshore…might be a good call. Come on in, the water is really warm!

10/9 Market Psychology

Written on October 9, 2010

Hello-

Pre-election…consensus among individual investors is now fairly bullish. Options are pricing in the least amount of risk in the last 5 months. All assets have risen…

If you caught this move since late AUG, congratulations it is the finest move the market has made in SEP since the 30’s. The DJIA went from 10,000 to 11,000 in one month. US 10 yr Treasuries dropped to lows of 2.35% and gold hit a new record high.

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey measures the percentage of individual investors who are bullish, bearish, and neutral on the stock market for the next six months; individuals are polled from the ranks of the AAII membership on a weekly basis. Only one vote per member is accepted in each weekly voting period.
Last Week's Results
Sentiment Survey ResultsWeek ending 10/6/2010
Bullish	49.0% up 6.5
Neutral	23.2% down 2.6
Bearish	27.7% down 3.9

Options are pricing in less risk.

Book a little hedge a lot.

Leon

9/28 It is Different Time...Sure it is. Really?

Written on September 28, 2010

Greetings!

My wife tells me that I too often repeat a joke…kick a dead horse. Hey, sometimes people don’t get the joke. Sometimes it is funnier the second time…and kicking a dead horse can be cathartic. They have never had any hesitation kicking me…

Anyway, the 10 yr note has closed at a yield under 2.50% only two dozen times in the last 12,182 trading days (since 1962). Long rates are not likely to go much lower.

SELL ALL Long dated BONDS, bond funds, etc. before you go home from the office today.

0	Frequency
250	24
300	129
350	205
400	855
450	1352
500	941
600	1703
800	3799
1000	1677
1200	800
1400	519
1600	169
More	0

If you get out of your US bonds you might curse me next week, next month… maybe even for a quarter or two. But, in the end…well, pigs and hogs end up DEAD.

Lastly, yesterday when I first told this “joke” I sent a graph that was labeled “weekly” data but it was actually 1900 “days” of data.

Sorry about that, it won’t happen again…until the next time it happens. How is that for an apology?

All the best,

Leon